Looking at the Future of Energy Using Scenarios


Shell energy scenarios to 2050(52 page pdf, Shell International, 2008)

Also discussed here: Shell Scenarios: Keeping an Eye on the Future(Rigzone, Dec. 13, 2012)

And here: Don’t kill the shale-gas boom(Robert J. Samuelson, Washington Post. Dec. 23, 2012)

Shell’s scenarios over the last 40 years have produced insightful analyses of possible options that have led to a number of wise decisions in both the political and economic areas. Today we review their look at energy scenarios where the future is determined either by short range reactive thinking by governments “Scramble” (which seems to be the order of the day) or by a more disciplined long term planning approach “Blueprint”. The projections from each scenario out to 2050 produce widely different results as might be expected with implications for climate change and the economy, as well as the need to keep a special eye out for the major triggers or uncertainties among which are the future of shale gas (a Scramble approach) and the future of a carbon tax which also takes the form of road pricing (a Blueprint approach). The last of the noted links above show the political-natural gas aspect.

energy 2050

To see Key Quotes and Links to key reports about this post, click HERE

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